The women’s draw for the BNP Paribas Open came out today, and TSF bracketologist Chris takes a look at who’s going to end up the last women standing.
The WTA has had 8 different winners at this event over the past 10 years; 7 of those are in action here. All are in the top 32 and will get a bye into the second round.
Caroline Wozniacki: There’s been a lot of debate recently about Caro’s slamless #1 ranking. She went 31-5 on North American soil last year and has finalist points to defend here. She’s drawn to play Pennetta in R16, which’ll be the toughest test — along with questions about the legitimacy of her top ranking — on her way to the semis. Final.
Kim Clijsters: If we did our calculations properly, Kim needs to best Caroline by just one round to reclaim the top ranking. But her track record, both overall — 16-2 on the year and 27-3 since (and including) the 2010 US Open — and at Indian Wells — twice a champ (pre-retirement, in ’03 and ’05) — might not be enough to buoy her through the toughest draw of the top 4 women’s seeds: Groth in R32, Petkovic or Bartoli in R16, Kvitova, Jankovic or Ivanovic in QFs. SF
Vera Zvonareva Vera’s won her before (in 2009, the title that catapulted her in the rankings and helped her gain control of her emotions) and lost to a formidable Stosur in R16 last year. Of the top 4, she has the easiest route; the only woman in the way is Schiavone in the QFs. Win.
Sam Stosur: We’re still waiting for Sam to bounce back from that loss to Schiavone at the French. The Aussie’s 6-6 on the year and 10-11 since the US Open. Those SF points from last year are going to be hard to defend; we don’t expect her to make it past the QFs with this draw: Hantuchova in R32, Sharapova or Rezai in R16, Li, Kuznetsova or Petrova in QFs. QF
Francesca Schiavone: It took seeing Schiavone in person at Indian Wells last year (she lost that match to Rezai) for us to appreciate her athleticism. She’s never made it past R16 here (a three-set loss in ’08 to eventual champ Ivanovic) but we’re giving her a little bump past that. QF
Jelena Jankovic: The San Diegan (soon!) and defending champ has a dismal IW record (six first- or second-round losses in nine appearances) yet plays well on the California hard courts. That being said, she’s only 7-4 this year and finished last year 5-11 after Wimbledon. Needless to say, this is the biggest slump she’s been in for quite a while. Despite semi loses to eventual champs Wozniacki (Dubai) and Zvonareva (Doha), I thought she was in good form. R16
Li Na: She started 2011 with a title win in Sydney and an appearance in the AO finals. However, Li’s lost in the first round of her two tournaments since. We’re hoping this is just a period of adjusting to being on everyone’s radar (Ed: even our non-fan parents are talking about her!). While she made the IW semis in 2007 (loss to eventual champ Hantuchova), Li probably needs one more post-AO tournament to get her back into form. She’ll be back by Miami. R16
Victoria Azarenka: Vika’s been many a journalist’s pick for slam contention for quite a while now, but we don’t agree. She needs to work on her mental state and physical fitness to match her potential. R16
Agnieszka Radwanska: We’re putting her in the same lot as Azarenka (though we prefer her game over Vika’s). Aga’s a defending semifinalist and reached the QFs in ’08 and ’09. QF
Shahar Peer: A middling year thus far with an 8-5 record, but Shahar’s hovering near her career-best ranking so she must be doing something right. QFs here in ’07 (loss to Hantuchova) and R16 in the past two years. R16
Svetlana Kuznetsova: Sveta’s had a better 2011 compared to how she did in 2010 this time last year. She played well as she handed Henin the Belgian’s final career loss in Melbourne, and there was no reason why she should’ve lost that epic match against Schiavone. (Sveta got her revenge by taking out the Italian on the way to the Dubai final.) All that being said, after reaching the Indian Wells finals in 2007 and 2008 she lost her first match here in the last two years. What should we expect in 2011? We’re thinking that seeing the ups and downs of her countrywomen — Safina’s ranking slide (but now a doubles specialist!), Vera’s potential ascent to #1 (something Sveta’s yet to do despite having two majors), Dementieva’s tearful retirement, and Sharapova’s continued commitment to the game despite injury — will give her a little something more to fight for. She’s only 25 (seriously?!) and can still get 5-7 years of play, so she should decide whether to push back to the top or be content in top 30 purgatory. Lucky for us, she seems to be on the Masha/Bepa train instead of Elena/Safina. SF
Petra Kvitova: All’s good with the Czech, who’s 16-2 record for 2011 matches that of Clijsters (whom she defeated in the Paris final). Her only losses are in the QFs in Melbourne (Zvonareva) and a two tiebreaks in Dubai to Morita. Kvitova’s third trip to IW will have her in the same seciton of the draw as Jankovic and Ivanovic. We have her going out to Clijsters in the quarters. QF
Ana Ivanovic: Nowhere to go but up for the Serbian, who followed a title and a finals appearance (in ’08 and ’09) with a first round exit in 2010. Ivanovic got her act together and went 21-6 to finish the year, picking up titles in Linz and Bali. Unfortunately, she’s sputtered in 2011 so far. Can the desert winds bring back some of her mojo?
Daniela Hantuchova: The two-time IW winner (’02 and ’07) has done alright so far, taking the title in Pattaya City with a win over Zvonareva then lost to her in 3 tight sets in the Doha quarters. We’re expecting her to take out Stosur on her way to the quarters. QF
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Jarmila Groth, Gisela Dulko, Greta Arn: All these ladies have won titles this year. Pavs and Groth are seeded but will run into Peer and Clijsters in the second rounds. We think Dulko’ll go the deepest into the draw. Vania King shouldn’t pose too much trouble in 1R and Kanepi (R64) and Wickmayer (R32) are always liable to be upset.
R16
1 Woniacki d 13 Pennetta
9 Radwanska d 8 Azarenka
26 Hanutchova d 16 Sharapova
11 Kuznetsova d 7 Li
5 Schiavone d 10 Peer
3 Zvonareva d Dulko
12 Kvitova d 6 Jankovic
2 Clijsters d 15 Bartoli
QFs
Wozniacki d Radwanska
Kuznetsova d Hantuchova
Zvonareva d Schiavone
Clijsters d Kvitova
SFs
Wozniacki d Kuznetsova
Zvonareva d Clijsters
Finals
Zvonareva d Wozniacki
stay, don’t go
March 9, 2011By Jonathan Scott
Another brand of March Madness is upon us: With the unisex goodness that is the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells tournament, the 2011 pro tennis campaign kick-starts into high gear. This 1-2 punch of Cali and Miami makes for a full month of top-notch tennis. Indeed, spring’s done sprung.
Now a curious trend seeped into tennis again in 2010: jumpy observers of the sport seeking to retire players -– good, even great stars who reaped some solid results -– before they themselves are ready to hang up their racquets. The guilty parties: too many tennis writers and other observers and “personalities” involved to various degrees. Their victims? Among them, Andy Roddick, Venus Williams, and even Roger Federer, proving that not a single star is exempt from these hasty calls to exit.
But Roddick won Memphis last month, dousing the ballyhooed, raging fire that is young Milos Raonic and coming up with possibly the best championship-point winner ever. He also ignited his fellow Americans’ effort on the Chilean clay in Davis Cup, punctuating his clinching win with a scissor kick (Video: here) that would make Sally O’Malley salivate. Too many quickly forgot that Venus seized some early 2010 titles and vaulted to no. 2 in the world before injuries in part derailed both her autumnal and 2011 Aussie exploits. (Oddly, she’s now singing 311 karaoke on a MIA-to-Turks cruiseship and showing off some fly dance moves for someone with chronic knee issues.). Fed himself ran the table at the London year-end championships in December, outdoing even Rafael Nadal in the final, and snagged an early 2011 title before a taking-all-comers Novak Djokovic rolled over him in Melbourne.
Still, retirement happens. It’s inevitable. Justine Henin’s departure has itself turned into a piece of music with multiple movements, the strings swelling and falling at different points. Henin has been like that lover who breaks it off and then loiters for attention: Mercy. And merci.
All of the brouhaha catalyzed a thought: Who or what in the sport truly needs to go?
Without further ado, a few items –- persons, peccadillos, and other pesky minutiae –- that best get gone. Now. Conversely, some other talents and trends are welcome to get comfy. So there it is: Stay, or Go.
GO: Foremost, let’s be done with the freak injuries. Some stars are making the maladies on TV hospital dramas seem realistic: Victoria Azarenka scarily passed out on court after bopping her head during a warm-up run, and then Anna Chakvetadze did her best Vika impression. Meanwhile Andy Murray strained his hand by playing video games excessively (okay, that one proved a fib). It seems a few players just need to be grounded.
Granted, Serena’s recent pulmonary embolism/hematoma scare is more than legit. Anyone who relishes compelling tennis, even if no fan of hers, whether onlooker or media, can only hope she makes it back into the mix again. Tennis needs her fight and her bite. Not every player needs to be Mama Kim Clijsters, portrait of civility.
Speaking of, GO: Can we just be done with all the talk about Clijsters’ motherhood? Cute turned to precious in a hurry there, and not in a good way.
GO: That hand-strain hoax aside, Murray might want to consider tempering his video gaming: Girlfriend Kim Sears reportedly already broke up with him once over the habit. Word to the wise, young gun: the lady has you on watch.
Judy Murray, we heart thee.
GO. STAY. Good dog: Not to pick on the Murray familia too much (see below), but what of these tweets from the family’s resident cur, this Maggie? So let it be written, so let it be done: No more Murray mutt tweets, at least not until Andy bags that virgin Major. It’s no less lame to put your pet on Twitter than it is to fashion a Facebook profile for it.
STAY: Judy Murray, British tennis coach and mom to Andy and Jamie. Yes, she advises her son. She also isn’t afraid to shoot a witty retort at a former player who yaps about her spawn’s chances at winning big with her on board.
GO: Boris Becker. Just let it be, Boorish. You were a fine player, a flame-maned, serve-and-volley stud on grass. Then you knocked Murray and his mum for his underperforming at Slams, chiding him for his closeness to Judy and (good grief!) for standing by his girl at age 23. So a former player cheats on his pregnant wife with a Russian model (in a closet), resulting in a lust child, and then doles out unsolicited relational advice? Laughable. Not content to merely stand by his statements from the fall, BB waxed on again after Murray’s mopey, one-sided loss to Nole in the Aussie final. Sigh. Everyone’s a Carillo. Click to read more, kids. You don’t want to miss these musings.
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